My goal here is not only to provide knowledge but also to dispel a myth, the myth that markets are predictive. They are not. They are probabilistic. My trading methodology revolves around defining and assessing those probabilities based on a stock’s past behavior and the distribution of that behavior.
On the one hand, quantitative analysis is defined as a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and trading volume. Technical analysis (TA), on the other hand, uses charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. A security’s intrinsic value is of no interest.
Gold prices after an historic crash have rebounded very sharply. Since hitting $1320 per ounce on Monday April, 15th, Gold (NYSEMKT:GLD) has risen as much as $145 and looks ready to climb even higher to end this week.
Gold has risen every year since 2001 but is off more than 10% this year so far. Investors buy the yellow metal as protection against currency and savings buying power erosion. But, the combination of poor economic data and slowing inflation despite the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing had investors skittish about the Fed ending its monetary stimulus program. That’s the official story. There are reports of failures to deliver allocated gold circulating as well as the announcement that allocated bullion accounts at Dutch banking giant ABN Amro would be settled in cash rather than physical metal which has radically increased the demand for the physical metal around the world
Graphics chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is in a difficult position long term. While its discrete graphics card business is still relatively strong, taking market share in 2012 from rival AMD (NYSE:AMD), this is a market that, overall, will continue to shrink in the coming months and years. To its credit Nvidia has attempted to move into different markets, most notably the low-power mobile SoC (system on a chip) market with its Tegra line of ARM-based solutions. Now, it is in the process of launching its fourth generation of the Tegra based on the Cortex A-15 core, for which early benchmarks are long on big numbers and short on context. The news last month confirming rumors that the company would not be supplying the SoC at the heart of the next Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Nexus 7 tablet deals a serious blow to the company’s projected sales for the rest of 2013.
With the Dow Jones Industrials setting a record earlier in the week, I want to dip back in time a bit and look at one of its true bellwether stocks, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) who posted a 13% increase in profits this past quarter beating estimates by $0.01 but disappointed slightly on sales with its revenues increasing by just 3.8% to $11.46 billion. Investors should be concerned with Coke’s gross profit margin falling below the 60% threshold after staying above for more than two years. This may be a harbinger of a short lived rally for the Dow.
Nike (NYSE:$NKE) broke above $50 per share, a significant resistance level, after announcing better than expected results coming from North America in their last earnings report.Overall, global future orders are due to rise 6% through April, out of which the North American and Western European future orders are up 14% and 10% respectively.But, Nike’s future growth is not predicated on North American growth, a saturated market, but rather China and other major emerging markets and there the picture is more muddied.In this article we’ll go over the earnings report and lay out a potential trade based on Nike’s current performance and price.
Peter Pham is an author, international fund manager, and a registered financial director by the Cayman Monetary Authority (CIMA). In 2013 he published his first book entitled, The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns. He currently manages the portfolio of a global hedge fund and runs an asset management company, Phoenix Capital. (read more)
The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns
This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.