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Vietnam’s Business Cycle at a Pivot


          Perspective:1980 to 2005

  • The major economic downturn in Vietnam began in 1980-1990.
  • The economy was suffering from hyper-inflation.
  • After major banking reform, a recovery began into the new millennium.

         Twin Shocks: 2006-2007

         1. Huge foreign investment growth pushed prices upwards and increased trade deficit.

         2. Global financial recession hit the country.

  • Inflation remerged as Vietnam made efforts to recover from the recession.

        Post 2007

  • Vietnam has been successful in triggering its economic growth + the process of recovery is gradual.
  • Two factors restricting growth: 1) the current account deficit 2) inflation

         The Future: 2011-2012

  • Future policy reforms will focus on:
  1. Restructuring SOE's (state owned enterprises), in order maintain fiscal balance and reduce public debt in 2011 as well as in 2012.
  2. The Central Bank will try to contain inflation by controlling credit growth via hike in interest rate and following flexible exchange rate in 2011.    

         Alpha Returns in the Cycle:

  • With the tightening of the capital markets, fund managers have been able to make new investments without raising additional capital.
  • The level of exits that have been actually achieved by the fund managers is of significant importance to the industry.




 

 

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Peter Pham is a capital market specialist and entrepreneur.  With expertise as a Head of Institutional Sales and Trading he closely watches the market and probes for investment opportunities utilizing a unique blend of quantitative trading experience and macro trend analysis… (read more)

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